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| BULGARIA: PM Facing Dilemma: Pursue Tobacco Sell-Off or Stay In Power |
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2005-01-31 12:12:49 |
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Despite fears that the fission between ruling coalition buddies NDSV and DPS over the privatisation of tobacco monopoly Bulgartabac could topple the minority government of prime minister Simeon Saxe-Coburg, the bets among the top NDSV brass are 60:40 in favour of the prime minister standing his ground in the face of the junior partner's sudden resistance to a deal with British American Tobacco (BAT).
DPS, the party of the ethnic Bulgarian Turks, demanded last Tuesday that the government scrap the ongoing privatisation and restart the whole procedure. The formation threatened that if NDSV goes through with the sell-offs under the current format, the senior coalition partner better get ready to face the political consequences of that move.
Economy minister Lidia Shuleva has said any decision to conclude or dial back the deal will be taken jointly by the coalition allies but since the rift appeared last week, NDSV and DPS have not met to try to establish common ground.
The climax of the Bulgartabac row was last Friday, January 28, when the left and right-wing opposition forces walked out of the parliamentary session after the NDSV managed to postponed for the second time a debate on the progress in the dragged-out privatisation deal. In a rare show of commonality of interest, the left and the right-wing opposition announced they will move a no-confidence motion against the government.
Despite its beef with the Bulgartabac deal, DPS indicated that it will not go so far as to allow the government to be ousted. The latest opinion polls suggest that early elections would benefit most the left-wing BSP whose approval rating has been on the wane, eroded by rising confidence in the incumbents.
The word from Shuleva's team is that the minister is adamant on a deal with BAT with no further delay. Analysts ascribed Shuleva's determination to concerns that the failure of the sell-off would be interpreted negatively by West European investors. For the moment, DPS is neither budging nor saying much. Party leader Ahmed Dogan has made no public statements while his next-in-command have been making conflicting noises.
The sponsors of a possible no-confidence motion can count on 49 votes form BSP, 28 votes from ODS, 11 votes from Popular Union and seven independent votes. The motion will be carried with a simple majority in the 240-seat parliament.
The procedure for the privatisation of four Bulgartabac mills, paired off in two sell-off packages, was launched in mid-2004 and attracted only one bid, from BAT. The investor made an offer for the package containing the Sofia BT and Plovdiv BT cigarette factories while the second pair of tobacco mills offered for sale - Blagoevgrad BT and Slantse-Stara Zagora BT, did not attract an investor. It has since transpired that BAT officials toured the Blagoevgrad facility and the company indicated it was willing to throw the cigarette-maker in the deal.
In the meantime, the government refused to renew the cigarette making licence of Slantse-Stara Zagora BT.
Source: Dnevnik English Edition
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seeurope.net |
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The Event: SEEF 2004
