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| The Political Outlook for the Balkans in 2005 |
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2004-12-16 12:35:10 |
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The critical issue for all of the countries of the Balkans is how
to advance their aim of integration in Euro-Atlantic structures, above all the EU. The region is burdened by the legacy of war, poorly functioning institutions, stunted reforms, corruption and organised crime, as well as outstanding wartime issues over statehood, territory and national minorities.
Tensions in Kosovo over final status talks will benefit nationalists in Belgrade. Whether elections to the SCG parliament go ahead in February will provide an indicator of the Union\'s viability. Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia should move closer to EU membership, but SCG, Macedonia and BiH must first settle issues of internal coherence and viability.
Considerable progress has been made in recent years in overcoming these problems. EU integration is seen throughout the region as the key to consolidating stability. Bulgaria and Croatia have already turned the corner,
and at stake is mainly the pace at which they can achieve their EU ambitions. The Union of Serbia and Montenegro (SCG), Macedonia and Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH)
are still beset with serious questions about internal coherence and viability. Former FRY. Kosovo holds the key to stability:
Kosovo
In mid-2005, talks on status may begin, provided sufficient progress has been made on achieving the standards set by the UN on a range of issues, including governance and minority rights. The expectation that such talks may
lead to independence will probably impel the province\'s Serbs to continue the obstructionist tactics seen in their boycott of the local elections. It may also cause political strain in Belgrade, benefiting hardline nationalists.
Failure to address Kosovo\'s status could cause another upsurge of violence among ethnic Albanians, as in March 2004. Further indictments of leading Albanians by the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY)
in The Hague, perhaps even of new Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj, could also bring unrest.
SCG
The Union\'s future hangs in the balance. Under its Constitutional Charter, direct elections to the joint parliament are due by February. Montenegro\'s pro-independence ruling parties want to avoid a direct election, arguing that
it makes no sense to hold it before an independence referendum. Serbia is disinclined to agree to talks on separation, but if the election is not held on time, the prospects for the union appear bleak.
Serbia
As Serbia faces likely parliamentary elections at the republic level early in 2005, its politics will be highly volatile and finely balanced between extreme nationalist and reformist parties. Much may depend on the stance of the Democratic Party of Serbia of Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica. Cooperation
with ICTY and policy on Kosovo are key divisive issues. Having adopted a twin-track approach to the SCG, the EU hopes to begin negotiations on a stability and association agreement (SAA) early in 2005 . Given the fragility of Serbia\'s democratic transition and the fraught issue of ICTY,
progress on EU integration may continue to be slow.
Macedonia. Following the failure, due to the low turnout, of the November 2004 referendum to overturn the redrawing of municipal boundaries, which many ethnic-Macedonians see as unduly favouring the large ethnic-Albanian minority,
the Ohrid peace process appears to be back on track. The successful holding of delayed local elections in early 2005 would be a positive sign that it will remain so. However, resentment remains strong, especially in the places most
affected by the changes. The crucial relationship between the governing Macedonian and ethnic Albanian parties will be fragile.
Macedonia applied for EU membership in March 2004. The European Commission has issued a questionnaire to assess the country\'s readiness to begin membership
negotiations. Even if it issues an opinion in 2005, membership itself is unlikely to come soon. Skopje enjoys US support for its bid for NATO membership, and will hope for positive signals on that in 2005.
BiH
As the international role -- ranging from interventions by the international high representative, to levels of Western aid -- diminishes, Bosnian politicians will have to take more responsibility for their country\'s future. Given the wartime legacy of bitterness and the complex constitutional
set-up, with its two constituent entities, bequeathed by the 1995 Dayton peace agreement, this will not be easy. However, the prospect of eventual EU accession has proved an incentive for leaders of all three main ethnic groups. Until now, reform has been driven by the high representative.
Of critical importance is the strengthening of central, state institutions at the expense of the entities, to enable the state to function effectively. Resistance to this development from the Serb entity may be diminishing. Key to whether the European Commission decides to begin negotiations on an SAA in 2005 is its assessment of how far Bosnia has developed functioning
institutional structures and been weaned off its reliance on the high representative. Cooperation with ICTY, especially by the Serb entity, remains highly problematic.
Albania
Elections due in mid-year could see the re-emergence of the Democratic Party (PD) as the biggest single party in Albania. Such a prospect would disturb the West, given the authoritarian rule and erratic behaviour of PD leader Sali Berisha, when in power in the 1990s. Whether Berisha returns to power may depend
on the new Socialist Movement for Integration of former Prime Minister Ilir Meta, following a split with the Socialists. Berisha has sought to establish a more moderate profile, and a priority for any future government will be EU
integration. However, the slowness of reform and the prevalence of corruption and organised crime will hamper EU integration progress. It is unclear whether the government
will succeed this year where it failed last, and sign an SAA.
EU candidates. Zagreb hopes to be able to join the EU in 2007, along with Sofia and Bucharest:
Croatia
Zagreb received a positive assessment of its membership bid from the Commission in April 2004. Membership negotiations could begin in March. The main issue that may hold up progress is the failure to deliver indicted General Ante Gotovina to ICTY. Given the size of the task of preparing for EU entry, a
date as early as 2007 looks unrealistic.
Bulgaria
Having completed its accession negotiations with the EU, Bulgaria expects to sign its accession treaty early in 2005, opening the way for membership in 2007. Sofia is keen that each country be assessed individually, and that any delay to Romania\'s accession should not affect Bulgaria.
Romania. Bucharest is close to completing its accession negotiations and hopes, like Bulgaria, to sign its accession treaty early in 2005. However, the slow pace of reform, the extent of corruption and concerns about the conduct of the
November elections all raise doubts whether accession will go ahead in 2007.
In Serbia, Kosovo and Macedonia, this may be a decisive year for
resolving some of the region\'s more intractable problems, but progress is fragile and the risk of a return to extremism remains. Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia all hope that 2005 will be a watershed on the way to EU membership.
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The Event: SEEF 2004
